Talked about Indian recent economic growth performance during the morning meeting today. One of the colleagues brought up the unexpected drop of the growth rate. Here is more research I did.
印度曾在2004年－2008年实现了8.7%的年均GDP增速；即便在全球金融危机后的2009年－2011年，年均GDP增长也达到了7.8%.
其间的共识是，印度政府在金融危机以来做了不少失误的判断，最重要的是过分强调刺激消费而忽视投资对宏观经济的影响，同时国内严苛的政治生态又难以令其在多重困境下做出迅速、有效的应对，最终导致刺激消费的单引擎失控后，在严重的通胀缠绕下经济丧失了自我修复的能力。
以本次发布的数据为例，个人消费占比为57.9%，而投资仅占GDP的32%。
2008年12月，印度政府宣布了经济刺激计划，在三四个月内追加2000亿卢比的支出。这项计划涵盖了政府支出、下调中央增值税、信贷支持、出口鼓励政策等多项经济刺激措施。
在此期间，印度央行还将存款准备金率从9%连续四次下调，至5.5%。在彼时的多重刺激下，印度经济复苏强劲：2009年前三个季度的GDP增长分别为5.8%、6.1%和7.9%。
然而，过于宽松的货币政策造成的不良后果就是通胀泛滥。自2010年开始，印度政府数度加息，但由于决策者认为过分控制通胀将损害经济增长，所以政策力度并不强，效果自然欠佳。
印度政府政策摇摆不定的一个例子便是今年4月，印度央行刚刚将银行基准利率下调了50个基点，一个月后，由于欧债危机对印度股票市场的冲击，为了恢复投资者信心，时任印度财长的穆克吉不得不再次宣布实施经济紧缩政策。
6.3%将是印度经济自2002年至2003年增长4.0%以来的最慢增速。
Interesting article here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-explosive-bubbles-that-will-kill-capitalism-2012-07-03
Chinese Version
http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20120706/ecb072938.asp?source=whatnews
1. Health-care Bubble: Forget court, elections — health care will implode
2. Government Bubble isolates Washington from real America
3. CEO Pay Bubble up 20% while bank stocks sink as much as 61%
4. Inequality Bubble now at 1929 level, warning of end of capitalism
5. Debt Bubble: Debt-ridden college grads selling burgers, lattes
6. Global Jobless Bubble: Governments warned, revolutions coming
7. Oil Bubble: New oil crisis will trigger new Arab Springs
8. Risk Bubble: U.S. recovery threatened by global economic risks
9. Slow-Growth Bubble: New normal is anemic returns, austerity
10. Capitalism Bubble: selfishness weakens our role as a leader
I was preparing for a mock interview at my Business Communication class, and found this news a good resource to update oneself with one of the big current affairs in Hong Kong. So what do you know and how do you think about the 2012 Hong Kong Chief Executive election and how is the result going to affect the society/economy?
When we were discussing the history of Hong Kong stock market in one of my finance classes yesterday, that term CEPA appeared as a positive factor to the market in history. Seeing that term again reminds me of one piece of news that I wanted to look into in August.
The Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) was first signed in June 2003. And annual supplements have been signed between the two sides ever since. The objectives of the agreement are to “strengthen trade and investment cooperation between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong and promote joint development of the two sides“.
In order to realize the objectives, the Agreement thus includes measures to facilitate trade in goods, trade in services, and cross-border investment. The latest supplement to CEPA will mainly focus on the last two areas. One of its major features is to support Hong Kong as an offshore yuan business center, which means that Hong Kong can manage the capital sent from the mainland. Another important feature will give Hong Kong’s service industry greater access to the mainland.
Chloe Sha 